Wednesday, December 12, 2018

VMI Ranges Beginning to Tell a Story

As many of you have also been doing, I have been watching the NBA performances aligned with the VMI formulas. Of course, we still have many games to go and a number of data points to gather before we know the truth, but there are some signs that are taking shape.

As of today, another marker followed suit, as was expected. That is; if one looks closely at the three point shooting in the NBA, the percentages made within all the ranges of the VMI have now dropped below the percentages made in the zero to 5.99 VMI Ranges shooting percentages. That, of course, was expected to occur and certainly by the All Star Break.

Based on the understanding that the heavier air would hold the ball back by more than an inch in the minus VMI ranges above 6.00, which track the teams' exposure throughout their individual schedules, all those accuracy percentages in the ranges above 6.00 have now dropped below the accuracy percentage achieved where the shooting is minimally affected by the air.

At this point, less than 1/3 of the season is behind us, but whether plus VMI, or minus VMI, all the ranges show less accurate shooting the further from zero the VMI identifies the teams' need for adjustment. It is doubtful that the 3-point shooting in the higher ranges will exceed the minimally affected production for the remainder of the season.

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