Wednesday, October 16, 2019

Preseason prepping for 2019-20

I'm in the process of resetting all of the various DHD/RotoGuru Hoops reporting for the 2019-20 NBA season

As of today, I have tentative working versions of the following:

  • Sortable Stats, with DFS salary data for FanDuel, DraftKings, and Yahoo DFS. Note that I am only capturing salary data for the "Classic" format with the full daily slate of games. I will not be capturing salary data for single-game formats. Note that if you choose the trailing 7, 15, or 30 day periods, preseason games will be included. If you select "full season", preseason games will be excluded. (So if you want to see any data prior to the start of the season, don't select "full season".)
  • Game-by-game player histories for the current season (including preseason). From this page, you can also drill back to prior year histories.
  • Daily point recaps are now provided for preseason games. DFS salaries are not shown for preseason games, and some anomalies will be present for any game that includes a non-NBA team.
As in the past several years, I will be producing the premium NBA master data file. This will hopefully be available by Wednesday, October 23. The file will be provided for free for at least the first four weeks of the NBA season. Subscription details will be announced sometime in November. (Remember that a separate subscription is required for each NBA season.)

The Stat Summarizer will not be updated for 2019-20 until sometime after the start of the regular season. Stay tuned for further announcements.

As always, if you notice anything that looks to be incorrect, please send an email to davehall@rotoguru2.com.

Sunday, January 20, 2019

Premium data now requires subscription

The free ride is over. In order to get at all of the premium data from the current NBA season, you need to have a paid subscription. For details, and to subscribe, go here.

Also, starting today, in order to get the current day's VMI and ADI values from basketballVMI.com, you must have a paid membership at basketballVMI.com. Historical VMI and ADI values will continue to be provided for everyone.

If you have any issues with your paid subscription, please send an email to davehall@rotoguru2.com and describe the specifics of your problem.

Wednesday, January 16, 2019

Plus VMI's vs Minus VMI's in Basketball

Today is probably a good day to mention something I've begun to notice in the NBA as related to the VMI. On Tuesday night Golden State went ballistic on the Denver Nuggets The Warriors set NBA records.

This points out two, maybe three things I've stated in this website, one (at least) that I'm going to need to change. It also pointed out one thing I'll keep without changing.

The Warriors came into Denver from their sea level location and sported a Plus 21.59 VMI. That means they were used to launching the ball with additional power by about 4 inches more than they needed to use in Denver. The adjustment normally means that accuracy in shooting should suffer like it did in October when they last visited Denver and shot only 24.1% three pointers.

Not only did the Warriors kill the Nuggets from every distance and angle, they shot 53.8% from downtown.

The thing I've been noticing lately that appears to be incorrect is this:

I have stated that it matters not whether a team is a plus VMI or a minus VMI, the fact they need to adjust should return similar results. I now believe that is a wrong assessment in the NBA. It is beginning to appear that visiting teams to Denver, Utah, Phoenix, Atlanta and Minnesota sporting a higher than normal Plus VMI, have an easier time adjusting to accuracy than teams leaving those arenas and traveling to sea level. A team leaving a higher altitude location would naturally sport a high Minus VMI and their normal thrust would leave the ball a few inches short.

The data is showing that being able to shoot further in a more relaxed state of being while arriving in Denver and other higher elevations is returning a little better results than the opposite situation. That is; it is better to be in the plus VMI, than the minus VMI.

Something that appears to be wrong, may be only a temporary issue:

Recently, I wrote that the three-point percentages in all the higher VMI Ranges had fallen below those in the low VMI Ranges. With the Warriors' very high shooting number and percent on Tuesday, the range (probably temporarily) exceeds the shooting percent of the low VMI ranges.

I will make changes to the text in our website as soon as I feel comfortable that these issues are not just temporary.

Monday, January 7, 2019

2018-19 Season Premium Data as of January 20

Starting January 20, 2019, some data will be available only via premium subscription. The cost for this data for the 2018-19 NBA season is $32. For details on which data reports and formats are impacted, please click HERE.

Data for the past several NBA seasons continues to be available. Note that each NBA season's data requires a separate subscription. Details and subscription links appear on the same page, underneath the info for the current season.

Wednesday, December 19, 2018

Premium data subscriptions deferred until January

Due to a confluence of personal priorities, migration of some 2018-19 data files to premium subscription status will be delayed until January. Subscription details will be announced sometime in the second week of January.

Until then, continue to enjoy the 2018-19 data for free. Happy Holidays!

Wednesday, December 12, 2018

VMI Ranges Beginning to Tell a Story

As many of you have also been doing, I have been watching the NBA performances aligned with the VMI formulas. Of course, we still have many games to go and a number of data points to gather before we know the truth, but there are some signs that are taking shape.

As of today, another marker followed suit, as was expected. That is; if one looks closely at the three point shooting in the NBA, the percentages made within all the ranges of the VMI have now dropped below the percentages made in the zero to 5.99 VMI Ranges shooting percentages. That, of course, was expected to occur and certainly by the All Star Break.

Based on the understanding that the heavier air would hold the ball back by more than an inch in the minus VMI ranges above 6.00, which track the teams' exposure throughout their individual schedules, all those accuracy percentages in the ranges above 6.00 have now dropped below the accuracy percentage achieved where the shooting is minimally affected by the air.

At this point, less than 1/3 of the season is behind us, but whether plus VMI, or minus VMI, all the ranges show less accurate shooting the further from zero the VMI identifies the teams' need for adjustment. It is doubtful that the 3-point shooting in the higher ranges will exceed the minimally affected production for the remainder of the season.

Wednesday, November 28, 2018

Lebron's Comments a Season Ago Come Back Around

Last year Lebron James made a statement about Denver Nuggets poor shooting. After last Tuesday's game in Denver, Lebron may have a new view of how difficult it is to adjust to and from high altitude 3-point shooting.

In season's past, Lebron has had a good game in Denver and returned later for a bad one. Tuesday in his most recent trip, he had arguably the worst game in his career going 0 for 4 from outside and helping his team to an embarrassing loss to the Nuggets.

The Lakers as a team shot 5 for 35 on three pointers as they sported a +21.88 VMI, meaning their shots would be several inches long and each player must adjust. No Laker hit more than 1 3-pointer in their loss to the Nuggets whose VMI was 5 something, meaning they would probably be less than an inch off from their usual shooting distance.

The truth is, this does not mean it will happen every time a team transitions to Denver or Utah or Phoenix, Oklahoma City, Atlanta and a couple other higher altitude venues. We don't know the percentages of accurate determination of either wins & losses, or 3-point shooting, or defensive rebounding yet. It may take a full season, or more to determine what the percentages of accuracy the VMI can be trusted for, but it now appears that day is going to arrive.

When I first began to observe the three-point shooting differential was in 2001 to 2005, or about the time Josh Kroenke was playing for the University of Missouri Tigers Basketball Team. The Tigers transitioned from Missouri to the University of Colorado for a game which I was totally convinced would be a "Slam Dunk" win for Colorado due to outside shooting.


The absolute opposite happened. The Tigers adjusted very nicely in that game and sunk 3-pointer after 3-pointer in a blow out win against Colorado in Boulder at 5,500 feet in elevation. In particular, I noticed that the success seemed to come when they stepped back a few feet from the three point arc to shoot. Those longer shots happened to be the perfect way to combat the altitude for that game, but it doesn't always work that way. Kobe Bryant did the same thing against the Denver Nuggets on many occasions, but he too, struggled to make it work all the time.

So, all we can say at this point is that the players need to adjust. Some will adjust better than others and some teams will adjust better, as well. However, there is a percentage that will reveal itself some time this year. It will be repeated over the next couple years to provide us with an answer as to how often do individuals and teams make the adjustment flawlessly, and how often can we count on disaster for the teams trying to overcome the altitude transitions.


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