Wednesday, November 28, 2018

Lebron's Comments a Season Ago Come Back Around

Last year Lebron James made a statement about Denver Nuggets poor shooting. After last Tuesday's game in Denver, Lebron may have a new view of how difficult it is to adjust to and from high altitude 3-point shooting.

In season's past, Lebron has had a good game in Denver and returned later for a bad one. Tuesday in his most recent trip, he had arguably the worst game in his career going 0 for 4 from outside and helping his team to an embarrassing loss to the Nuggets.

The Lakers as a team shot 5 for 35 on three pointers as they sported a +21.88 VMI, meaning their shots would be several inches long and each player must adjust. No Laker hit more than 1 3-pointer in their loss to the Nuggets whose VMI was 5 something, meaning they would probably be less than an inch off from their usual shooting distance.

The truth is, this does not mean it will happen every time a team transitions to Denver or Utah or Phoenix, Oklahoma City, Atlanta and a couple other higher altitude venues. We don't know the percentages of accurate determination of either wins & losses, or 3-point shooting, or defensive rebounding yet. It may take a full season, or more to determine what the percentages of accuracy the VMI can be trusted for, but it now appears that day is going to arrive.

When I first began to observe the three-point shooting differential was in 2001 to 2005, or about the time Josh Kroenke was playing for the University of Missouri Tigers Basketball Team. The Tigers transitioned from Missouri to the University of Colorado for a game which I was totally convinced would be a "Slam Dunk" win for Colorado due to outside shooting.


The absolute opposite happened. The Tigers adjusted very nicely in that game and sunk 3-pointer after 3-pointer in a blow out win against Colorado in Boulder at 5,500 feet in elevation. In particular, I noticed that the success seemed to come when they stepped back a few feet from the three point arc to shoot. Those longer shots happened to be the perfect way to combat the altitude for that game, but it doesn't always work that way. Kobe Bryant did the same thing against the Denver Nuggets on many occasions, but he too, struggled to make it work all the time.

So, all we can say at this point is that the players need to adjust. Some will adjust better than others and some teams will adjust better, as well. However, there is a percentage that will reveal itself some time this year. It will be repeated over the next couple years to provide us with an answer as to how often do individuals and teams make the adjustment flawlessly, and how often can we count on disaster for the teams trying to overcome the altitude transitions.


To view and/or make comments, visit BasketballVMI Blog

Thursday, November 8, 2018

VMI and ADI data now included in NBA master file

VMI and ADI data for all 2018-19 NBA games is now included in the RotoGuru/DHD NBA master file. These two data elements have now been appended to the end of each player data line.

The NBA master file is still available for free, but will eventually convert to a premium basis, available only by subscription. Subscription details will be announced later in November.

Once the file transitions to a premium basis, ADI and VMI values for the current game day will be restricted to those who are also members at basketballVMI.com. (Note that all baseballVMI.com members will automatically be grandfathered with basketballVMI membership for this season.) Historical ADI and VMI data will be unrestricted (i.e., available to all).

For more information on the basketball VMI index, please visit BasketballVMI.com.

(Note: ADI and VMI data are not available for prior seasons.)

Saturday, November 3, 2018

Effects of altitude on a basketball three-point shot

As stated earlier, most people are aware of the differences in flight distance of a baseball, football, or golf ball between sea level and the altitude of Denver, Colorado, which represents the extreme altitude for many professional sports. However, few have given much thought to the three-point shot in basketball as it relates to all the teams in the NBA and College basketball.

Recently, the Golden State Warriors visited Denver, Colorado for a matchup of the best 3 point shooting team in recent history vs the Nuggets who have long been the worst 3 point shooting team in NBA history. Neither team is used to playing NBA basketball in Denver’s higher altitude. It showed.

The Warriors made 7 of 29 shots for a 24.1 percentage when they normally are almost twice that production clip. The Nuggets, who are playing better to begin this season, made 6 of 32 shots for a paltry 18.8 percentage. Both teams had done some shooting at Denver and Utah, but it did not solve all the issues that come up during game time action.

The ADI that we present at www.basketballvmi.com gauges primarily the barometric pressure and the VMI that we present not only on our website, but will also provide on this site as well, gauges the conditions that are normal for the two teams in any NBA match-up. The Warriors were a plus 14.84 for that game, meaning they were used to shooting about 3-1/2 inches longer to hit their 3-pointers. Not all the players adjusted well, and this is the purpose of the VMI for Basketball. It should tell you something about the additional opportunities for offensive and defensive rebounds, as well as when a team is “out of their element.”

"Actual Barometric Pressure" stated in "Inches of Mercury"

One of the most significant issues for basketball people to understand is actual air pressure. The hidden truth about pressure is inadvertently hidden from the public by the media, because meteorologists speak of barometric pressure from a "sea level" measurement. Meteorologists must present a clear picture of air pressure highs and lows so that they can keep a watch on the small daily pressure changes within "all" altitudes across the nation and around the world. Therefore, they have adjusted the standard air pressure at all locations to "sea level", but this does not represent the "actual pressure" for the elevation.

In order to adjust the standard sea level pressure measurement of 29.92 inches of mercury to the actual pressure at differing altitudes, one must subtract approximately 1 inch of mercury for every 1,000 feet of altitude. Therefore Phoenix, AZ would normally read approximately 28.92 actual barometric pressure; Las Vegas, NV at 2500 feet in elevation would normally read about 27.00 inches of mercury; Lubbock, TX air pressure would be represented at about 26.50 inches of mercury; and Denver, CO normal air pressure is actually measured at 25.42 inches of mercury.

The basketball is larger than that used in most sports projectiles and is full of air, so is light in weight. On a three-point shot and without spin, it does not "knuckle" in flight because it does not have any large smooth surfaces. It probably does not lift due to backward spin either, because there are no exterior protrusions (such as seams) and the lack of speed would also not allow it to lift in flight.

The thrust at the release point is the fastest speed of the shot and, of course, due to gravity, slows as it reaches the top of the arc. The speed then increases from that point to the basketball rim. The air resistance is applied from the beginning of the shot all the way to the rim, therefore the difference in amount of air resistance is the reason the distance of the flight changes from climate to climate. See our discussion about "Air Weight" for a better understanding of the difference between altitudinal air densities.

Milibars

An interesting side note: When it comes to media discussions of air pressure in weather related events, such as hurricanes, Meteorologists convert the conversation from "inches of mercury" to pressure in "milibars." Why? Well, it keeps the non-professionals guessing as "Terminology" is the great separation between layman and professional. It may be easier to drop the decimals off "inches of mercury" and use milibars instead, but essentially they express the same air pressure.

Sea level "inches of mercury" actual pressure is stated as 29.92 hg (inches of mercury) which can also be stated as 1013 Milibars, as they are the same. Another expression for the same air pressure is 14.7 psi (pounds per square inch).

So at sea level actual pressure is 29.92 hg, or 1013 pa (milibars in pascal), or 14.7 psi. However, actual pressure at Denver, CO at 5,200 feet elevation is 25.10 hg, or 850 pa, or 12.33 psi.

It is this "850 pa" that I want to point out at Denver, Colorado which is standard air pressure for that altitude. Pressure inside a hurricane periodically hits 850 or so milibars, because the centrifugal force applied by wind at the exterior edge pulls the molecules apart with a huge force causing the air pressure to drop to the same as in Denver, but the outside air pressure is 1013 milibars. This pressure differential is what causes extreme damage and extremely high winds. Does that give you pause as it relates to a basketball flying through air in Denver as opposed to air at sea level? It does for me.