Saturday, November 3, 2018

Effects of altitude on a basketball three-point shot

As stated earlier, most people are aware of the differences in flight distance of a baseball, football, or golf ball between sea level and the altitude of Denver, Colorado, which represents the extreme altitude for many professional sports. However, few have given much thought to the three-point shot in basketball as it relates to all the teams in the NBA and College basketball.

Recently, the Golden State Warriors visited Denver, Colorado for a matchup of the best 3 point shooting team in recent history vs the Nuggets who have long been the worst 3 point shooting team in NBA history. Neither team is used to playing NBA basketball in Denver’s higher altitude. It showed.

The Warriors made 7 of 29 shots for a 24.1 percentage when they normally are almost twice that production clip. The Nuggets, who are playing better to begin this season, made 6 of 32 shots for a paltry 18.8 percentage. Both teams had done some shooting at Denver and Utah, but it did not solve all the issues that come up during game time action.

The ADI that we present at www.basketballvmi.com gauges primarily the barometric pressure and the VMI that we present not only on our website, but will also provide on this site as well, gauges the conditions that are normal for the two teams in any NBA match-up. The Warriors were a plus 14.84 for that game, meaning they were used to shooting about 3-1/2 inches longer to hit their 3-pointers. Not all the players adjusted well, and this is the purpose of the VMI for Basketball. It should tell you something about the additional opportunities for offensive and defensive rebounds, as well as when a team is “out of their element.”

"Actual Barometric Pressure" stated in "Inches of Mercury"

One of the most significant issues for basketball people to understand is actual air pressure. The hidden truth about pressure is inadvertently hidden from the public by the media, because meteorologists speak of barometric pressure from a "sea level" measurement. Meteorologists must present a clear picture of air pressure highs and lows so that they can keep a watch on the small daily pressure changes within "all" altitudes across the nation and around the world. Therefore, they have adjusted the standard air pressure at all locations to "sea level", but this does not represent the "actual pressure" for the elevation.

In order to adjust the standard sea level pressure measurement of 29.92 inches of mercury to the actual pressure at differing altitudes, one must subtract approximately 1 inch of mercury for every 1,000 feet of altitude. Therefore Phoenix, AZ would normally read approximately 28.92 actual barometric pressure; Las Vegas, NV at 2500 feet in elevation would normally read about 27.00 inches of mercury; Lubbock, TX air pressure would be represented at about 26.50 inches of mercury; and Denver, CO normal air pressure is actually measured at 25.42 inches of mercury.

The basketball is larger than that used in most sports projectiles and is full of air, so is light in weight. On a three-point shot and without spin, it does not "knuckle" in flight because it does not have any large smooth surfaces. It probably does not lift due to backward spin either, because there are no exterior protrusions (such as seams) and the lack of speed would also not allow it to lift in flight.

The thrust at the release point is the fastest speed of the shot and, of course, due to gravity, slows as it reaches the top of the arc. The speed then increases from that point to the basketball rim. The air resistance is applied from the beginning of the shot all the way to the rim, therefore the difference in amount of air resistance is the reason the distance of the flight changes from climate to climate. See our discussion about "Air Weight" for a better understanding of the difference between altitudinal air densities.

Milibars

An interesting side note: When it comes to media discussions of air pressure in weather related events, such as hurricanes, Meteorologists convert the conversation from "inches of mercury" to pressure in "milibars." Why? Well, it keeps the non-professionals guessing as "Terminology" is the great separation between layman and professional. It may be easier to drop the decimals off "inches of mercury" and use milibars instead, but essentially they express the same air pressure.

Sea level "inches of mercury" actual pressure is stated as 29.92 hg (inches of mercury) which can also be stated as 1013 Milibars, as they are the same. Another expression for the same air pressure is 14.7 psi (pounds per square inch).

So at sea level actual pressure is 29.92 hg, or 1013 pa (milibars in pascal), or 14.7 psi. However, actual pressure at Denver, CO at 5,200 feet elevation is 25.10 hg, or 850 pa, or 12.33 psi.

It is this "850 pa" that I want to point out at Denver, Colorado which is standard air pressure for that altitude. Pressure inside a hurricane periodically hits 850 or so milibars, because the centrifugal force applied by wind at the exterior edge pulls the molecules apart with a huge force causing the air pressure to drop to the same as in Denver, but the outside air pressure is 1013 milibars. This pressure differential is what causes extreme damage and extremely high winds. Does that give you pause as it relates to a basketball flying through air in Denver as opposed to air at sea level? It does for me.

Wednesday, October 17, 2018

Game stats are up

Reporting is now up for regular season NBA player stats. As in past seasons, the master file and the SCSV version of the daily recaps will eventually be available only via premium subscription. But for at least the next four weeks, they will be provided for free.

Saturday, October 13, 2018

Getting ready...

I'm in the process of resetting all of the various DHD/RotoGuru Hoops reporting for the 2018-19 NBA season

As of today, I have tentative working versions of the following:

  • Sortable Stats, with DFS salary data for FanDuel, DraftKings, and Yahoo DFS. Note that I am only capturing salary data for the "Classic" format with the full daily slate of games. I will not be capturing salary data for single-game formats. Note that if you choose the trailing 7, 15, or 30 day periods, preseason games will be included. If you select "full season", preseason games will be excluded. (So if you want to see any data prior to the start of the season, don't select "full season".)
  • Game-by-game player histories for the current season. From this page, you can also drill back to prior year histories.
As in the past several years, I will be producing the premium NBA master data file. This will hopefully be available by Wednesday, October 17. The file will be provided for free for at least the first four weeks of the NBA season. Subscription details will be announced around the beginning of November. (Remember that a separate subscription is required for each NBA season.)

Daily point recaps and the Stat Summarizer will be available by sometime on Wednesday as well. Stay tuned for further announcements as these come online.

As always, if you notice anything that looks to be incorrect, please send an email to davehall@rotoguru2.com.

Thursday, October 11, 2018

COMING SOON—WWW.BASKETBALLVMI.COM

Special announcement from www.BasketballVMI.com:

As many of you already know from having read "Baseball Unraveled" by Clifton Neeley--Basketball is also affected by air resistance.

Since the NBA season is right around the corner, VMI is introducing "BasketballVMI." Within a few days of the opening of the regular NBA Season in 2018, we should be able to present the schedule ahead of game time and track the ADI and VMI for all the teams.

What will be the "Real World" focus for Basketball as it relates to NBA teams?

For Basketball, the issue is not the trajectory, but the distance of flight of the three point shot. Most everyone knows that golf balls, footballs, and other projectiles fly further in higher altitude locations than at sea level venues. Taking this concept a step further, we know that every venue between high altitudes and sea level, such as Oklahoma, Arizona, Atlanta, Texas, Minnesota and others are affected by air resistance differently. Can this be affecting 3 point shooting around the league when teams transition between those venues? How does good or bad 3 point shooting affect the other aspects of the game, such as rebounding and put-backs?

For the three point shot, the sensitive touch of the shooter is highly affected if what the shooter sees and muscle memory remembers as the amount of wrist and finger snap changes due to air resistance either holding the ball back a few inches, or freeing the ball to fly further than he/she is used to.

Since most, if not all, NBA and College basketball is played indoors, then temperature and humidity are not significant factors under normal playing conditions. However, "Actual" barometric pressure is a significant factor verified by Dr. Robert Adair, Professor Emeritus in Physics and author of The Physics of Baseball, Yale University.

We at Air Resistance Technologies will present for you a VMI based on a formula by Clifton Neeley which identifies when a team of players will be used to a shot flying 1 to 6 inches further or shorter than they are used to feeling and therefore affecting the overall shooting percentages, rebounding opportunities and put-back opportunities.

Stay tuned...

Wednesday, December 6, 2017

2017-18 Premium Data as of December 20

Starting December 20, 2017, some data will be available only via premium subscription. For details on which data reports and formats are impacted, please click HERE.

Wednesday, October 18, 2017

Master data file is up

The master data file for the 2017-18 NBA season is now up. After November (exact date TBD), this will become a premium subscription file. But during November, everyone can access it for free.

The general link is rotoguru1.com/cgi-bin/nba-dhd-2018.pl. That link also appears in the "Other Tools" menu above. Usage notes are in rotoguru1.com/hoop/nba-dhd-2018-notes.txt.

Comparable master files for prior seasons are available for a fee:
Game-by-game details for the 2016-17 regular and post-season is available for a one-time fee of $25. Similar data for the the 2015-16 regular and post-season is available for $20.

Thursday, October 12, 2017

Waking up the sleeping beast

With the NBA season starting soon, the various DHD/RotoGuru NBA tools are coming back to life. Here are some of the reports that have been activated so far:
  • Sortable stats: If you select the option for the last 30 days, you’ll get preseason stats. (Defaulting to "Full Season" gets you only regular season stats, which are all zero right now.) Season-opening DFS salaries are provided for FanDuel, DraftKings, and Yahoo. (Preseason salaries are not provided.) If a player salary has not yet been listed at a DFS site, then that player will be shown with a position of X and a salary of $0. If you click on any linked player name, you’ll get some preseason game details.
  • Daily fantasy points: Since I’m not tracking preseason salary data (if any even exists), all players show up as unlisted and unsalaried. But you can at least see some of the statistical parameters. And if you elect to sort by game, you’ll get results organized more-or-less in boxscore order.
The master file for the coming season is not yet available, and will not include preseason data. That file will be created once the regular season begins, and will be free for the first month or so.

Master files for prior seasons are still available for a fee:
Game-by-game details for the 2016-17 regular and post-season is available for a one-time fee of $25. Similar data for the the 2015-16 regular and post-season is available for $20.

If you notice any apparent glitches, please let me know (davehall@rotoguru2.com). In particular, preseason data is tricky in that some non-NBA teams are involved, so that does create some data anomalies that will not be present during the regular season. Nevertheless, I hope to have most of the relevant updated and available.